***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.7 6.4 1.3 60.1 59.0 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.8 6.3 1.3 59.8 58.8 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.8 6.9 1.4 59.7 59.3 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.8 2.3 4.1 1.5 63.2 60.3 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.5 5.2 1.5 62.6 60.6 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.8 4.9 1.6 62.4 60.7 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.3 6.2 1.2 58.1 58.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.7 1.7 5.0 1.6 61.4 60.9 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 6.0 1.6 63.0 61.0 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.3 5.6 1.7 63.0 61.4 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.9 5.3 1.5 61.1 60.5 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.1 5.1 1.4 60.7 59.7 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.8 4.8 1.4 60.8 59.8 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.6 6.5 1.6 58.5 60.4 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.8 4.8 1.4 58.0 59.3 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.0 4.9 1.5 61.7 60.0 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.3 6.2 1.2 60.0 58.7 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.8 5.8 1.8 61.8 61.7 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.0 6.6 1.3 59.7 59.0 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.8 61.7 61.7 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.5 6.4 1.5 62.7 60.4 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.0 6.3 1.3 60.2 59.2 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.8 7.0 1.4 59.7 59.0 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.7 6.5 1.6 59.8 60.6 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 5.2 1.4 62.4 60.2 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.2 4.5 1.2 58.8 59.1 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.8 6.0 1.4 60.3 59.5 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.5 4.4 1.5 61.0 60.0 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.7 5.3 1.8 60.6 61.6 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.9 6.3 1.3 58.0 58.6 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------