***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.0 7.3 -0.5 44.2 45.5 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.0 7.3 -0.5 45.3 45.1 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.4 7.6 -0.7 43.2 44.4 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.6 4.9 0.0 50.1 49.3 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.3 6.0 -0.7 40.8 43.6 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.4 4.7 -1.2 37.5 40.3 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.7 7.2 -0.5 46.3 45.1 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.2 5.0 -1.1 37.0 40.5 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.0 9.5 6.8 -0.7 40.4 44.0 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.3 5.8 -1.0 38.4 42.0 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.9 6.2 -1.0 39.9 41.7 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.4 5.5 -1.2 37.0 40.0 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 6.4 8.4 5.5 -1.5 34.5 37.6 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.3 7.1 -0.7 46.3 45.1 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 7.5 7.2 6.9 0.5 54.7 54.0 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.1 8.9 5.5 -1.2 38.4 40.2 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.4 7.1 -0.4 46.2 46.3 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 5.6 5.5 -1.1 38.1 41.5 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.3 7.4 -0.6 45.0 44.8 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 3.7 3.8 -1.5 35.5 38.4 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.9 9.0 7.4 -0.6 42.9 44.8 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.7 7.3 -0.4 46.2 46.7 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.9 7.6 -0.7 45.2 44.6 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.3 9.5 7.0 -0.8 42.6 43.6 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.7 6.3 -0.4 45.2 45.5 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.6 6.4 4.8 -1.4 31.3 37.4 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.3 6.9 -0.5 44.4 44.9 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.6 5.8 0.0 50.8 50.0 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.6 4.9 -1.3 37.4 40.2 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.0 7.3 -0.6 45.1 44.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------