***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9.5 7.0 9.4 -1.1 38.1 38.9 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 9.0 7.2 9.6 -1.1 38.2 38.9 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 7.8 9.7 -1.4 36.5 36.5 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.8 1.7 5.3 -1.8 34.3 34.8 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.7 7.6 -1.6 34.3 34.8 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.3 7.2 6.3 -1.8 31.4 32.9 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.8 7.7 9.5 -1.1 39.5 39.6 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -0.6 0.6 6.4 -2.1 29.1 30.6 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.9 8.0 8.6 -1.7 33.0 34.2 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 6.6 7.3 -2.0 31.1 32.6 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.0 8.1 -1.9 32.3 33.3 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.4 7.6 7.0 -2.0 29.8 31.2 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.5 7.3 8.0 -2.0 28.8 31.7 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.3 9.2 -1.6 35.0 35.1 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 6.6 7.4 -1.5 34.2 34.3 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.3 8.0 7.4 -1.9 30.9 32.7 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 8.5 7.4 9.2 -1.0 41.2 41.2 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.2 6.1 6.9 -2.1 30.5 32.0 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.6 7.5 9.7 -1.2 37.6 37.6 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 2.4 2.2 5.4 -2.2 27.7 30.0 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.0 9.3 -1.5 34.4 35.5 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 9.1 7.8 9.5 -1.0 40.6 40.4 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 7.8 9.8 -1.3 36.4 36.2 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.3 8.9 -1.7 33.1 34.0 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.2 7.2 8.3 -1.3 38.0 37.9 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.8 6.4 6.6 -1.8 29.7 31.3 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 9.6 8.0 9.1 -1.1 38.7 39.0 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.1 6.2 -1.9 32.1 32.5 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 2.9 2.9 6.5 -2.1 29.8 31.6 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.1 7.2 9.6 -1.2 37.2 38.0 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------