***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.5 2.2 0.3 54.8 52.8 0.2 1.2 2.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.9 2.0 0.3 56.1 53.5 -0.2 0.7 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.3 56.1 53.5 1.7 2.5 3.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.4 -0.3 0.4 54.2 53.9 -3.4 -2.6 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 53.8 53.2 -0.3 0.5 1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 0.0 -0.3 -1.8 0.2 48.9 50.8 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.9 2.0 0.3 55.8 53.1 -0.2 0.8 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -4.3 -4.6 -1.5 0.1 50.5 50.5 -5.2 -4.6 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 57.0 55.9 0.4 1.4 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.6 -0.8 0.3 53.6 53.2 -0.4 0.4 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.3 52.3 52.9 -0.5 0.1 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 0.1 49.0 50.3 -1.5 -0.3 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 0.3 0.0 -1.0 0.2 49.5 52.0 -0.6 0.0 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 55.5 55.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.6 58.7 57.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 1.1 0.9 -0.7 0.3 51.4 52.5 0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.0 2.0 0.4 56.9 54.7 -0.3 0.5 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 0.2 52.1 52.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.3 2.0 0.3 56.3 53.7 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -4.0 -2.7 -0.1 46.6 47.3 -5.0 -4.0 -2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 1.2 1.3 1.7 0.4 56.7 54.4 0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.8 2.0 0.4 56.5 54.9 -0.6 0.6 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 1.0 1.0 1.9 0.4 57.6 54.2 0.0 0.7 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.4 55.9 54.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.3 54.9 53.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 0.3 -0.3 -1.2 0.0 46.7 48.4 -0.7 0.0 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.3 1.9 0.3 54.2 52.6 0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 54.4 54.2 -1.8 -0.5 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 0.2 50.7 51.1 -2.8 -1.9 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.5 2.1 0.3 55.4 52.8 0.0 1.1 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------