***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 53.3 55.9 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -3.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 56.3 57.0 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 -1.4 1.9 0.9 1.0 53.4 56.3 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -3.7 -1.7 1.0 53.5 55.6 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 0.2 0.0 -1.3 1.0 53.1 55.8 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -0.8 -3.0 1.1 53.4 56.2 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 56.9 56.9 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -7.6 -5.4 -2.8 0.9 51.3 54.8 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.8 -0.8 1.0 52.5 56.3 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -2.7 0.0 -2.2 1.0 51.9 55.8 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.2 -1.8 0.9 52.7 55.2 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -0.9 -2.3 0.9 52.2 54.7 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.2 -2.5 1.1 54.5 55.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -2.3 0.3 -1.1 0.9 52.6 56.0 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 1.0 54.7 56.0 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 0.3 0.2 -2.2 1.1 54.4 55.7 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -3.6 0.2 1.0 1.1 57.2 57.2 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -2.1 -2.9 0.9 51.1 55.6 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -3.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 55.9 57.1 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -3.9 -4.3 -3.9 0.9 52.0 55.1 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 53.1 56.2 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -3.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 57.8 58.1 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -2.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 55.1 56.9 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -0.9 -1.4 0.9 51.2 55.9 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -2.6 0.4 -0.1 1.1 53.3 56.2 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -1.1 -2.6 0.9 53.0 54.2 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.1 53.8 56.4 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 1.0 53.9 55.8 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -6.2 -3.4 -3.2 0.9 51.5 55.5 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -3.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 55.4 56.7 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------