***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 1.6 1.0 1.8 -0.4 46.4 46.5 -0.2 1.2 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.7 1.5 -0.4 47.0 46.0 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 3.2 2.3 1.9 -0.4 46.8 46.7 1.1 2.7 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -2.4 -2.9 -0.3 0.1 49.3 49.7 -3.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 1.1 0.5 0.3 -0.3 47.0 46.6 -1.1 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 1.2 -1.4 -2.0 -0.5 42.0 43.0 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 1.4 0.9 1.5 -0.4 47.9 46.5 -0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -3.1 -5.6 -2.0 -0.9 38.8 40.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 1.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 47.4 46.7 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.2 -1.1 -0.6 42.8 43.4 -1.1 0.5 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 1.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 45.0 45.4 -1.7 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.2 -1.5 -1.2 -0.8 40.5 42.1 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 42.0 43.5 -1.6 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 2.0 0.7 0.2 -0.3 42.4 45.6 0.3 1.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 1.3 1.0 1.5 0.4 50.4 52.1 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 1.6 0.7 -0.8 -0.4 44.0 45.0 -0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 1.1 0.7 1.4 -0.3 48.1 47.2 -0.5 0.8 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -0.6 40.5 42.7 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 1.3 0.4 1.5 -0.4 46.1 45.9 -0.4 0.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -7.2 -5.2 -3.7 -1.7 31.7 34.5 -5.0 -3.5 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 1.3 0.8 1.5 -0.3 47.3 47.1 -0.4 0.9 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 0.9 0.3 1.5 -0.4 46.6 46.5 -0.5 0.5 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 1.4 0.4 1.5 -0.4 44.5 45.8 -0.1 0.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.3 45.2 46.2 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 2.1 1.3 1.1 -0.4 46.4 46.5 -0.5 1.7 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -1.0 -1.7 -1.1 37.8 39.2 -1.8 0.2 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 1.5 0.7 1.5 -0.5 46.5 46.2 -0.3 0.9 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 48.6 49.7 -2.2 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -3.6 -2.5 -1.0 36.5 39.4 -3.7 -1.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 1.5 1.0 1.6 -0.5 46.5 45.9 0.2 1.0 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------