***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 1.4 2.0 5.0 0.8 57.6 57.4 0.1 1.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 1.0 1.5 4.7 0.8 57.2 57.6 -0.2 0.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 3.1 3.1 5.1 0.8 58.7 57.8 1.4 2.8 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -1.7 -1.8 2.2 0.6 52.7 53.2 -4.2 -2.0 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 1.1 1.2 3.5 0.7 56.0 56.6 -0.3 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 52.6 52.9 -0.9 0.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 1.3 1.7 4.6 0.7 57.0 56.6 0.1 1.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -3.6 -3.0 1.5 0.8 57.3 57.5 -6.7 -4.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 3.2 3.2 3.7 1.2 63.3 63.8 0.6 1.2 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.0 58.7 60.1 -0.4 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 1.5 2.1 3.1 0.9 59.4 59.2 -0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 0.9 1.7 2.2 0.8 58.6 57.4 -1.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 1.2 1.3 2.1 0.8 54.3 57.4 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 2.5 3.1 3.9 1.5 64.6 64.5 -0.1 2.2 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 1.9 2.0 4.3 1.0 59.0 60.9 1.2 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.8 57.2 57.7 0.6 1.6 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 1.4 1.9 4.5 0.8 57.2 57.5 -0.1 1.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.9 57.2 58.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 1.1 1.6 4.8 0.9 58.3 58.7 0.2 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 -2.2 -2.5 0.5 0.6 52.2 52.9 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 1.1 1.3 4.5 0.8 58.5 59.0 -0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 0.8 1.4 4.9 0.9 57.3 58.2 -0.3 0.6 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 0.9 1.7 4.8 1.0 61.0 61.0 -0.5 0.6 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 1.1 1.5 3.6 1.2 60.0 62.0 -0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 1.2 1.2 4.5 0.7 55.9 56.8 0.3 0.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 1.6 1.5 1.9 0.6 55.3 54.3 -0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 1.7 1.7 4.8 0.7 55.9 56.9 -0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.7 53.6 54.9 -0.4 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 -1.0 -0.9 1.2 1.0 58.3 59.0 -3.6 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 1.7 2.0 4.9 0.8 57.4 57.3 0.2 1.4 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------