***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 25.5 33.6 38.0 85.6 47.9 42.6 22.3 39.1 52.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 25.7 34.1 38.0 88.0 47.6 42.9 30.3 34.3 42.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 28.6 40.7 39.3 89.2 46.5 44.6 32.5 44.1 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 37.2 46.3 41.0 82.9 39.9 41.0 42.5 49.6 64.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 31.2 39.7 42.2 88.5 43.3 44.5 33.1 44.8 56.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.2 39.4 41.3 90.0 46.2 44.4 30.9 40.7 50.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 24.7 32.4 37.5 86.2 45.0 41.6 28.6 33.3 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 49.6 54.0 43.8 87.3 40.8 44.2 51.0 71.2 85.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 26.6 34.6 44.2 92.3 44.2 46.8 28.3 42.3 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 34.3 48.4 46.1 92.5 44.0 47.4 37.4 51.3 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 32.8 43.4 39.0 89.0 44.6 44.8 30.5 49.3 64.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 34.2 43.5 38.0 86.0 40.7 42.7 36.5 48.3 86.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 36.9 44.1 40.5 89.0 41.2 43.8 36.1 58.1 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 43.2 67.6 49.9 96.0 51.1 47.7 49.9 65.5 78.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 31.1 50.6 37.9 72.7 35.3 36.1 48.4 55.2 81.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 30.8 36.7 38.0 88.1 42.1 43.4 33.7 47.9 67.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 26.4 35.0 38.4 89.5 48.6 43.6 24.7 35.7 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 36.7 43.2 51.2 93.8 45.1 48.8 36.8 47.3 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 29.2 37.1 38.7 89.5 48.1 43.9 30.7 37.4 48.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 38.3 42.8 57.8 85.1 40.1 42.9 40.0 50.6 65.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 29.1 42.0 41.5 90.2 44.6 45.8 36.6 45.7 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.6 37.6 40.7 92.5 47.8 45.4 33.9 38.0 54.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 29.5 42.5 40.9 92.0 49.3 45.4 32.3 42.6 48.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 36.2 58.0 47.2 94.6 47.1 48.3 34.4 58.8 77.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 26.1 35.0 43.2 84.3 42.1 41.1 28.3 40.7 52.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 32.7 35.1 37.5 79.1 35.6 37.4 32.9 50.3 73.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 25.0 37.6 41.7 85.0 45.4 41.4 27.3 39.1 57.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 26.9 39.2 38.8 80.8 38.0 39.9 31.8 42.5 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 49.8 63.8 54.5 92.3 43.4 48.1 54.0 68.4 103.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.4 34.5 37.7 87.1 48.0 42.7 29.7 34.7 41.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------