***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.1 7.0 10.4 116.8 66.7 53.7 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.1 9.5 107.2 62.4 52.1 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.9 10.3 111.1 65.1 51.1 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.1 11.2 123.4 69.8 52.9 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.5 11.3 123.9 69.7 53.2 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.8 9.9 11.4 133.7 69.3 55.5 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.8 9.4 108.2 64.9 53.1 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.2 15.9 10.7 106.5 67.0 51.9 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.3 8.6 11.6 118.9 70.2 51.9 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.0 11.5 113.5 69.4 52.4 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.8 10.2 120.6 70.0 53.7 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.1 9.6 113.8 66.5 52.8 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 12.3 10.9 131.5 71.8 55.7 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.4 18.7 12.8 114.0 64.7 50.9 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.0 8.5 10.6 109.5 64.6 50.0 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 13.4 10.4 130.7 70.9 54.9 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.0 9.4 110.1 62.2 52.9 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.4 12.7 109.0 67.9 52.2 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.8 9.6 106.6 62.0 51.2 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 13.4 13.9 99.3 64.9 51.7 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.9 11.1 118.9 69.4 52.1 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.0 9.7 109.3 60.9 51.7 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.9 10.3 108.7 63.8 50.4 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.4 18.2 11.9 110.7 67.1 50.9 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.5 11.9 120.1 69.0 54.4 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.5 9.8 114.8 65.2 52.8 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 10.1 11.3 116.6 66.9 54.4 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.6 10.7 121.4 67.1 52.0 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 19.9 13.4 105.6 67.2 52.6 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.8 9.7 108.6 63.9 52.0 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------