***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 17.8 12.0 99.5 61.9 49.9 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.9 12.3 103.0 62.7 50.4 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.1 17.3 12.6 103.8 62.8 52.1 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.0 13.3 95.5 57.6 50.2 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.6 13.5 99.2 58.0 51.1 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.5 8.4 12.8 97.3 59.1 48.1 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.8 12.1 100.3 60.4 49.5 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 16.9 14.4 98.5 56.1 49.5 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.6 14.1 102.3 58.2 52.3 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 13.9 14.8 102.2 57.5 51.6 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.2 12.3 97.5 56.0 49.5 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.6 12.1 94.9 55.2 48.1 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.2 12.3 94.4 55.8 47.7 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.4 16.1 15.7 109.0 60.8 53.1 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.2 6.2 13.0 89.3 53.2 47.0 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.2 7.1 11.6 94.3 55.8 47.9 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.7 12.4 102.8 62.1 50.9 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 16.8 16.4 103.6 61.2 52.3 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 12.9 12.6 106.3 63.1 51.6 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.2 19.7 98.1 56.3 49.8 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.4 15.2 13.1 102.4 59.8 51.9 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.1 15.1 13.6 110.0 66.1 53.5 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.6 13.3 109.8 62.0 52.9 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.8 17.8 15.0 106.2 63.0 53.1 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.4 13.7 96.3 58.4 50.0 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.9 10.0 12.0 90.3 57.2 46.6 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 15.0 13.2 97.4 58.1 49.3 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.2 8.2 12.6 93.1 55.0 48.2 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 17.6 17.8 102.7 59.4 51.8 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.5 11.6 12.2 101.9 62.7 50.1 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------