***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.1 3.3 8.1 71.2 41.2 34.6 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 1.3 2.4 8.6 72.9 40.5 36.6 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.6 9.0 82.5 46.6 38.5 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.9 6.7 10.5 84.8 49.8 41.7 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.9 10.5 89.6 53.9 42.3 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.3 8.8 11.6 97.9 56.8 48.2 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 1.0 2.2 8.2 69.2 38.6 34.7 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.9 11.6 92.5 58.4 46.8 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.9 92.6 52.5 44.0 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.5 8.3 11.8 96.2 58.5 46.5 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.0 10.3 96.5 61.4 46.2 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.8 10.3 93.4 59.1 46.3 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.6 11.0 95.4 53.9 47.0 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.9 8.3 11.9 89.3 52.5 43.6 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.9 10.7 77.9 51.4 39.1 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.6 9.1 10.4 96.2 56.6 46.6 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.4 8.5 69.5 40.0 35.6 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.8 13.1 95.9 57.9 46.7 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.3 4.1 8.8 76.3 43.7 37.7 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.4 15.5 87.8 56.3 46.6 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.7 86.2 48.7 41.1 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.3 9.0 72.2 41.2 36.9 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.3 81.1 47.5 39.5 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.3 11.5 94.1 55.2 44.5 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 2.3 4.3 9.6 71.3 39.4 34.5 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.1 10.0 85.3 53.3 44.0 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 1.7 4.6 8.8 67.0 37.1 32.8 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.8 9.9 10.8 87.4 54.8 42.6 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 16.0 14.2 94.1 58.1 47.5 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.2 3.0 8.4 73.2 41.2 36.0 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------