***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.7 7.4 62.0 46.2 40.1 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.3 7.8 7.6 72.1 48.3 41.0 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.6 9.0 7.4 63.3 45.5 38.8 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.6 8.2 5.9 42.4 37.6 29.5 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.1 9.5 6.9 52.4 40.0 32.8 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.7 5.7 5.5 44.6 38.3 30.4 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.2 8.4 7.7 71.6 47.5 41.4 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 10.4 7.1 54.9 38.8 32.3 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.0 7.6 60.3 43.5 36.0 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.1 10.4 7.9 61.5 42.0 35.2 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.6 10.4 6.3 51.7 41.9 32.3 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.4 5.6 6.0 50.4 39.7 30.9 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 7.4 5.4 6.3 49.8 38.5 30.5 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 8.5 16.3 9.4 72.7 45.3 39.1 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.5 1.7 3.6 25.5 31.1 22.3 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.3 7.6 5.7 46.9 39.7 30.7 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.0 11.7 8.1 80.3 52.8 43.9 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 9.1 9.0 67.0 42.8 36.6 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.8 7.7 71.1 47.9 40.3 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 4.0 6.7 8.7 54.3 35.5 30.5 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.7 7.6 60.1 45.0 37.5 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.5 14.3 8.5 81.9 53.3 43.1 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.9 9.8 7.9 70.0 47.0 39.3 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.4 8.7 68.5 45.5 38.2 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.9 8.2 8.0 59.3 44.0 38.0 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 5.9 4.9 5.7 41.3 34.0 26.7 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 8.1 8.4 66.3 46.9 41.3 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 4.2 3.0 4.8 35.8 34.8 26.4 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.5 9.1 65.4 40.3 34.9 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.1 6.0 7.5 68.2 46.6 40.3 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------