***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.9 9.1 1.4 68.4 67.5 6.2 7.6 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.4 9.1 1.6 70.8 70.5 6.2 6.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.5 10.2 9.4 1.6 72.0 69.6 7.0 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.0 7.1 1.7 73.3 70.9 1.7 2.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.5 9.7 7.6 1.5 71.5 68.2 7.4 8.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.3 6.7 1.2 64.6 63.8 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 7.9 8.3 8.9 1.5 67.9 68.9 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.9 2.8 7.1 1.6 72.7 69.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 9.9 10.4 8.6 1.6 72.7 69.3 8.0 8.5 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.9 7.9 1.7 72.7 69.4 6.9 7.6 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 9.6 9.5 7.6 1.4 68.3 67.0 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 9.3 9.9 7.4 1.4 67.9 66.9 7.6 8.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.2 7.1 1.1 63.7 62.7 7.6 8.4 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 10.3 11.1 9.0 1.7 74.6 70.5 6.8 8.3 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 7.7 8.2 7.8 1.8 80.2 74.9 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.8 7.2 1.2 64.9 64.4 8.3 8.9 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.9 8.8 1.6 71.0 70.5 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 7.6 8.5 7.7 1.6 73.5 68.9 5.6 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.3 9.4 1.7 72.8 71.0 6.2 7.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.8 6.0 1.6 74.4 69.1 3.6 5.1 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.1 9.0 1.6 72.6 69.3 7.1 8.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.7 9.0 1.6 72.6 71.0 6.1 6.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 8.7 9.3 9.5 1.7 73.5 71.1 6.4 7.5 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.2 11.0 8.8 1.7 73.3 69.7 7.6 8.6 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.8 7.8 1.4 69.3 67.9 6.3 7.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.4 6.7 1.1 63.6 64.1 6.9 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.2 8.4 1.3 66.8 66.5 7.0 7.9 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.6 7.5 1.7 74.9 71.6 6.5 7.1 8.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.5 7.0 1.6 74.9 68.9 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 8.3 8.5 9.2 1.6 69.7 69.8 6.3 7.0 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------