***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.6 6.1 0.7 56.6 56.9 2.4 5.9 7.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.9 6.0 0.9 60.2 58.9 2.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.9 6.2 0.9 60.4 58.2 3.2 6.2 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.3 3.9 0.7 55.9 56.8 -0.6 0.9 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 4.4 0.6 53.9 56.1 3.2 6.1 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.9 3.6 0.4 51.6 53.8 2.7 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.3 5.9 0.8 59.3 57.9 2.4 5.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.8 1.6 3.9 0.7 55.3 56.6 -1.3 0.0 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.8 5.2 0.7 56.6 56.3 3.5 6.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.0 4.6 0.7 56.5 56.3 3.3 5.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.3 4.2 0.6 53.3 56.1 3.8 6.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.8 4.1 0.6 52.7 55.6 3.6 5.5 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.5 3.7 0.3 51.5 53.5 2.8 5.5 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.6 5.6 0.9 59.1 58.1 3.3 6.2 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 4.4 0.8 58.2 58.9 3.8 5.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.9 3.9 0.4 51.4 54.9 3.3 6.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 5.8 0.9 60.9 58.8 3.3 4.8 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.6 4.5 0.8 57.3 56.0 2.0 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.2 6.3 1.0 60.6 59.5 3.2 5.7 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 3.8 3.0 0.7 54.7 56.1 1.4 3.6 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.1 5.7 0.8 57.0 57.0 3.2 6.4 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.8 6.0 1.0 59.4 59.6 3.8 4.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.9 6.4 1.0 60.7 59.7 3.2 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.4 5.5 0.9 59.1 57.3 3.9 6.4 9.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.7 4.6 0.6 54.6 56.1 1.8 6.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.4 3.7 0.3 50.8 53.7 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.3 5.4 0.7 55.5 56.2 2.8 6.4 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.1 4.1 0.7 56.7 57.5 3.6 5.7 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.6 3.1 3.9 0.8 56.7 55.9 0.8 2.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.0 6.1 0.9 59.8 58.4 2.4 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------