***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.6 9.4 1.1 59.5 59.3 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.8 9.4 1.2 60.9 60.6 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.2 9.6 1.2 60.1 59.8 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.5 7.4 1.3 62.2 61.6 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.7 7.9 1.1 58.8 60.1 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.3 8.8 7.1 0.9 56.6 58.3 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.8 9.2 1.2 60.9 59.6 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.7 2.9 7.2 1.0 59.4 59.4 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.5 8.7 1.1 58.5 60.2 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.1 7.9 1.1 58.8 59.6 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.4 7.7 1.0 57.6 58.9 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.6 7.5 0.9 57.1 58.0 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.5 10.3 7.1 0.7 56.6 56.6 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.6 9.0 1.1 56.3 59.0 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.4 10.1 7.8 1.4 65.7 63.2 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.1 7.4 0.9 55.9 57.8 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.3 9.0 1.1 60.8 60.1 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.3 7.8 1.1 57.5 59.1 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.2 9.6 1.3 61.2 60.6 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.5 6.0 1.1 60.6 59.6 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 9.2 1.1 59.3 60.0 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.4 9.2 1.1 60.4 59.5 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.9 9.1 9.8 1.3 61.3 60.2 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.7 8.9 1.1 56.9 59.3 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.8 8.0 1.2 59.0 60.6 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.6 6.9 0.8 52.8 57.3 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 8.7 1.1 58.8 59.4 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.6 7.7 1.3 62.3 61.7 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.5 7.1 1.0 57.8 58.8 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.1 9.5 1.2 61.1 60.2 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------