***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 14.0 14.5 13.2 2.9 75.6 74.8 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.4 13.6 3.3 78.2 78.1 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 15.1 15.0 13.9 3.4 76.9 76.8 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 9.3 9.8 11.7 4.1 80.1 81.1 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 15.3 14.8 12.5 3.7 74.2 76.6 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.4 10.9 3.0 72.3 71.8 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 12.1 12.5 13.1 3.0 78.5 76.8 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 5.9 5.9 12.1 4.1 75.6 78.3 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.6 16.6 13.6 4.0 78.4 78.8 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 15.1 15.1 13.0 4.1 75.1 77.8 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 15.7 15.8 12.6 3.7 74.0 76.4 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 14.7 14.7 12.2 3.7 74.3 76.7 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 13.5 15.1 12.1 3.1 73.9 71.8 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 16.1 15.3 14.1 4.1 76.7 77.7 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 12.3 13.8 13.4 4.4 89.3 89.0 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 14.9 15.3 12.0 3.2 73.9 74.0 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 11.6 11.6 13.1 3.3 78.3 78.5 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 12.1 12.3 12.4 4.0 74.4 76.0 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 13.2 13.3 13.9 3.5 78.4 78.6 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 10.8 11.9 10.6 3.9 76.8 77.7 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 15.4 15.4 13.9 3.7 76.2 77.7 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 12.6 12.6 13.4 3.4 78.5 79.2 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 13.3 13.4 14.0 3.7 79.1 78.8 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 15.6 15.2 13.7 3.9 75.8 76.5 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 13.0 12.8 12.4 3.1 72.7 74.5 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.4 13.1 11.2 3.1 71.6 73.8 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.4 12.6 2.7 74.0 72.9 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 11.9 13.3 12.6 4.2 83.6 83.7 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 10.9 11.3 11.7 4.0 74.6 76.6 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 12.5 12.8 13.6 3.2 78.5 77.2 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------