***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 57.9 56.1 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 58.4 56.6 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.6 57.3 56.8 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -3.6 -3.7 -2.0 0.3 53.4 54.5 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 0.2 -0.1 -2.0 0.2 48.8 52.9 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.0 -3.4 0.1 48.9 51.4 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 57.3 56.0 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.9 -5.6 -2.9 0.5 46.3 53.2 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.7 -1.1 0.3 51.1 53.9 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 0.2 -0.1 -2.2 0.4 48.5 53.5 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 0.2 -0.3 -2.3 0.2 47.9 51.8 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.6 -2.4 0.3 46.0 51.9 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -1.3 -2.7 0.2 46.1 50.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 0.6 0.4 -0.9 0.6 55.6 55.8 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 0.5 56.5 57.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.2 -2.7 0.2 47.9 51.4 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 57.3 57.1 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 0.6 51.4 54.0 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 58.8 57.1 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -7.9 -4.4 -4.0 0.7 50.1 54.4 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 55.0 55.8 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 58.1 57.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.7 59.5 57.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 0.6 53.9 55.2 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.6 -0.7 0.4 54.7 55.0 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.4 -2.5 0.2 47.4 51.5 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.4 56.0 55.3 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8 0.5 54.2 55.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.5 -3.0 0.6 51.0 53.8 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 58.3 56.4 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------