***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 3.9 5.0 5.9 1.8 70.9 70.8 0.1 1.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 4.5 4.6 6.5 2.9 78.0 78.6 -0.2 0.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 6.1 5.7 6.0 2.1 74.1 73.1 1.4 2.8 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 2.0 2.9 4.2 2.6 78.0 77.2 -4.2 -2.0 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 2.3 2.4 3.9 1.8 68.9 69.1 -0.3 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.3 63.0 62.5 -0.9 0.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 4.3 4.5 6.6 3.0 78.6 79.2 0.1 1.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -3.6 -2.0 2.4 1.8 67.1 66.7 -6.7 -4.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 3.9 4.1 4.1 1.9 71.9 70.7 0.6 1.2 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.0 70.4 69.6 -0.4 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 2.3 2.3 3.3 1.6 66.7 66.3 -0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.3 63.6 61.9 -1.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 1.1 1.6 2.0 0.9 58.1 56.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 4.3 4.2 4.6 2.4 75.1 73.5 -0.1 2.2 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 3.3 3.8 5.2 2.3 80.4 78.5 1.2 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 1.8 2.9 2.4 1.2 61.3 60.4 0.6 1.6 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 4.3 5.3 6.8 3.5 83.1 83.2 -0.1 1.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 1.1 1.2 2.8 2.2 71.7 70.9 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 3.9 4.0 6.2 2.7 76.4 77.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 -1.0 -1.3 1.4 2.0 66.7 67.3 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 4.3 4.2 5.6 2.1 74.5 72.9 -0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 3.8 4.4 6.7 3.2 81.5 81.3 -0.3 0.6 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 4.0 3.9 5.7 2.4 75.0 74.6 -0.5 0.6 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 2.9 3.2 4.4 2.3 74.5 73.3 -0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 3.5 3.9 5.3 1.9 70.8 70.4 0.3 0.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 1.4 1.8 2.4 1.3 59.4 59.1 -0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 4.7 4.3 5.6 2.0 72.2 72.0 -0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 1.7 2.0 4.4 2.5 79.0 77.3 -0.4 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 0.9 0.3 1.8 1.9 67.6 66.9 -3.6 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 5.0 4.6 6.3 2.6 75.4 76.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------