***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 29.9 43.6 42.2 89.5 48.8 45.4 26.4 43.7 52.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 40.7 34.5 35.8 87.3 49.0 46.1 30.7 34.6 48.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 54.5 51.5 42.9 93.1 53.2 47.7 35.1 49.0 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 43.0 61.8 48.5 93.0 52.2 46.8 47.8 60.0 75.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 35.7 46.3 46.9 89.6 45.6 44.6 38.8 47.6 67.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 56.7 46.2 44.8 89.8 47.2 44.3 35.8 49.3 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.6 35.1 35.3 87.0 48.0 45.8 30.4 35.6 40.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 75.9 73.2 52.4 94.9 52.1 49.4 54.3 72.2 82.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 50.4 44.1 49.5 94.2 47.8 47.7 38.0 44.4 60.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 59.1 52.7 52.9 95.6 51.1 49.1 40.2 52.0 64.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 60.7 50.6 48.6 92.2 47.8 46.8 36.3 54.0 70.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 69.3 64.3 48.1 93.8 51.3 48.7 43.7 63.0 87.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 66.0 59.1 49.7 90.5 47.5 45.2 37.9 60.7 74.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 75.8 70.0 51.2 94.4 51.9 48.6 52.6 69.5 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 40.9 68.7 50.3 101.4 56.1 50.6 50.2 60.5 89.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 55.3 44.0 45.9 87.6 46.3 43.6 33.5 46.5 71.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.7 37.9 35.6 89.4 50.4 46.8 31.6 37.7 45.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 58.5 57.3 54.5 96.0 53.9 49.6 41.1 53.0 72.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 45.3 36.7 37.4 88.7 49.6 46.6 32.1 37.2 49.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.9 56.2 63.7 92.5 52.9 47.7 39.8 54.3 75.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 53.3 49.1 46.2 91.7 49.8 46.3 41.8 49.6 60.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 46.6 41.7 37.4 88.5 49.4 46.7 36.4 41.9 54.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.2 41.3 40.9 91.2 49.1 47.1 37.5 41.5 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 65.0 61.9 50.4 96.2 54.5 49.9 44.6 59.0 80.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 46.9 42.3 46.4 87.9 46.9 44.5 29.2 43.6 51.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 59.5 53.6 48.2 91.5 48.4 47.1 42.7 54.8 75.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 48.1 42.8 42.9 86.9 46.8 44.0 29.3 43.5 55.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 33.6 52.8 47.0 95.7 52.5 47.9 38.4 49.8 78.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 85.4 79.3 57.4 94.6 53.3 48.8 53.5 73.4 100.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.5 35.7 37.4 88.3 50.4 46.4 31.0 35.5 41.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------