***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.5 11.3 104.5 58.6 53.3 1.6 6.4 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.0 10.1 108.7 62.6 57.4 2.5 6.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.2 12.2 11.4 106.5 62.4 54.4 1.4 5.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.4 12.5 102.7 60.6 51.9 5.3 8.6 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.2 12.6 100.9 60.4 51.4 4.6 7.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.1 5.1 13.2 111.5 61.2 52.4 1.8 2.9 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.7 11.0 9.7 106.5 63.8 57.3 2.1 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.1 13.6 13.7 107.7 62.2 54.6 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 7.4 13.3 105.3 62.0 52.5 2.6 4.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 10.2 13.9 108.4 62.2 53.9 2.9 5.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.6 12.8 104.9 60.8 52.8 2.1 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.1 8.6 12.6 106.5 60.5 54.3 4.4 5.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.5 13.0 103.6 58.6 52.1 3.5 4.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 16.4 13.5 107.5 60.5 52.6 4.5 9.6 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.1 9.8 14.0 118.9 67.2 55.5 0.8 3.3 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.9 12.7 104.3 61.0 51.9 2.3 5.8 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.0 9.7 108.8 62.3 58.2 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.8 12.7 14.2 110.7 63.7 53.9 2.8 5.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.3 10.6 108.8 62.5 56.1 2.4 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.2 11.1 17.3 107.5 63.2 54.5 3.9 6.6 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.5 12.2 104.0 60.1 52.1 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.3 12.6 10.8 114.2 65.8 58.2 2.8 6.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.3 11.5 107.1 61.0 53.8 1.4 8.2 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.9 14.7 12.8 106.2 61.4 52.7 2.0 7.4 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.4 12.5 102.9 57.8 52.4 2.4 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.5 12.8 105.9 61.4 53.0 4.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.5 9.5 11.6 103.3 59.7 52.9 3.9 5.7 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.3 12.5 110.4 64.1 52.8 0.9 5.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.5 19.6 14.9 110.2 63.8 54.0 4.7 14.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.5 9.6 10.4 107.5 64.3 56.3 2.2 5.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------