***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 12.4 105.2 58.2 51.9 3.5 6.2 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.9 9.9 102.4 57.5 52.7 1.6 4.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.2 18.8 12.8 115.2 61.4 54.6 3.1 5.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.9 15.4 124.8 68.3 56.5 4.7 9.6 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.5 21.1 14.8 119.0 65.5 55.1 2.1 9.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.5 14.4 125.5 67.9 56.1 2.5 7.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.1 9.9 99.5 54.8 52.6 2.6 5.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.9 17.1 16.5 128.7 64.3 56.9 5.4 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.2 13.7 15.6 120.4 63.2 55.5 1.8 4.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 7.4 14.2 16.3 123.9 63.4 56.3 2.4 4.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.7 19.7 14.9 123.7 65.8 55.4 2.6 5.6 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.5 16.6 15.2 130.0 66.2 56.6 2.7 10.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.5 14.2 15.5 124.4 64.6 55.9 4.1 9.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.8 15.1 116.1 59.2 55.0 3.1 11.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 19.3 43.3 16.6 140.5 75.5 58.0 4.4 11.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.6 16.8 14.7 124.6 68.0 55.3 2.3 8.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.2 9.8 100.6 57.2 51.9 2.3 4.3 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 18.1 16.6 121.3 63.9 56.7 2.4 8.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 7.9 10.4 106.2 59.5 53.3 2.0 6.5 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 16.6 19.9 119.0 63.5 56.3 1.9 6.7 20.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.5 19.6 14.3 117.2 62.0 54.4 3.8 6.9 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.6 10.2 100.8 57.3 52.0 2.2 7.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.8 11.7 113.1 61.2 54.7 1.2 5.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.3 15.2 123.6 62.2 56.4 4.3 10.9 15.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 14.3 110.1 58.9 53.2 2.2 10.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.2 15.5 128.9 67.5 57.4 3.6 8.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.8 12.8 104.0 58.0 51.7 2.8 4.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 22.0 15.3 135.1 71.5 57.6 1.9 10.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 19.4 17.4 119.0 63.9 56.7 3.5 8.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.2 10.6 104.1 57.1 53.1 2.4 4.7 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------