***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.8 12.6 96.6 54.7 47.6 2.3 4.9 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 5.6 9.5 83.2 48.1 44.9 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.9 12.2 94.8 57.4 46.9 2.6 6.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.1 14.8 98.2 54.9 48.1 4.0 8.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.3 13.4 90.4 54.0 45.6 2.3 4.6 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.8 11.7 80.0 43.3 41.2 1.4 8.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.6 9.1 80.5 47.0 44.0 2.4 6.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 12.8 14.1 85.7 50.2 44.3 5.7 12.4 25.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.7 14.1 95.7 56.5 48.3 0.9 5.6 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.6 14.7 92.0 53.8 47.1 2.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 13.3 14.5 91.8 55.5 47.2 1.6 8.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.5 13.2 85.2 48.2 44.3 2.2 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.0 4.0 14.0 87.9 47.1 45.6 2.4 4.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 13.1 13.8 90.4 53.1 45.6 5.3 12.7 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 9.6 14.8 109.4 66.7 50.5 2.1 4.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.3 12.4 81.4 47.7 42.4 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.5 8.8 79.8 50.0 42.2 2.2 7.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.1 14.9 91.3 54.4 46.0 5.1 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.2 10.2 85.2 50.6 44.9 3.4 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.7 16.7 83.4 48.8 42.6 3.8 11.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.0 13.3 93.6 56.8 46.7 2.6 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.7 10.0 9.3 78.4 48.7 42.2 6.1 10.3 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.4 8.9 11.1 86.4 52.9 43.4 4.5 8.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.2 14.1 93.9 58.4 47.1 3.5 8.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.8 13.5 91.9 53.9 45.6 2.1 6.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.7 5.6 13.5 85.0 49.2 44.7 2.7 5.7 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.9 12.4 90.3 52.6 45.6 2.0 6.4 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.2 13.7 97.1 58.2 48.0 1.6 4.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 14.9 15.5 87.4 49.1 44.1 7.0 16.2 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.2 10.2 87.0 49.9 45.8 2.3 6.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------