***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.6 5.9 51.3 41.8 36.3 5.7 9.1 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 5.0 6.3 59.2 46.8 40.4 2.5 6.3 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.0 6.6 57.4 44.4 39.0 5.5 9.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.9 14.4 5.8 46.3 44.9 37.1 3.7 15.0 26.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.5 8.0 6.1 48.3 41.4 37.6 4.7 12.8 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.2 6.7 5.5 46.2 40.3 37.2 5.5 17.5 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.5 6.5 64.5 47.6 40.3 2.8 5.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.7 13.2 8.1 61.1 46.8 41.5 5.3 15.9 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.5 8.7 6.5 53.2 39.9 38.0 6.0 11.0 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 9.3 7.9 59.3 44.3 40.3 5.9 11.8 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.6 12.0 6.5 50.6 44.2 38.7 5.9 15.6 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.7 18.2 7.1 57.6 45.6 40.5 2.2 20.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.8 7.2 51.4 40.3 38.0 7.4 15.6 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.0 12.4 8.8 65.7 45.9 41.6 7.0 15.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.7 4.9 39.7 44.5 35.3 1.9 8.2 21.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.0 11.2 6.2 46.4 41.1 37.0 3.9 16.0 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.3 7.3 71.9 52.4 43.6 2.4 7.8 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.2 9.2 8.8 63.0 43.7 40.9 5.8 13.4 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.6 6.2 58.4 46.6 40.9 4.6 7.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.8 11.7 9.9 62.1 43.0 41.0 5.9 17.5 30.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.4 5.8 6.4 52.3 41.8 37.1 4.3 11.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.3 6.9 7.1 65.7 49.7 43.0 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.3 6.6 60.2 46.4 41.1 3.5 8.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 6.3 8.4 64.0 43.0 40.8 4.2 11.9 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.1 4.4 6.1 47.1 40.6 35.8 3.3 10.6 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.6 12.5 6.4 50.4 41.1 37.9 10.1 14.6 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.9 6.5 6.0 50.3 40.5 36.4 4.4 7.5 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.4 5.5 44.1 46.5 36.7 2.4 9.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 31.9 13.6 9.5 64.8 43.5 41.0 7.1 27.4 39.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.1 6.2 57.4 46.6 39.5 2.8 6.5 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------