***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.4 7.0 -0.7 39.8 40.2 7.0 7.8 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.9 7.0 -0.6 38.7 41.3 6.6 7.4 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.0 7.4 -0.7 39.3 41.2 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.5 1.8 3.9 -1.1 32.5 35.7 1.9 3.4 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.8 5.5 -0.7 41.1 41.0 7.7 8.4 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.5 4.9 -0.6 44.4 43.0 7.3 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.4 6.9 7.0 -0.6 39.0 41.8 6.4 7.0 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.7 5.2 -0.3 47.5 46.2 1.0 1.7 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.4 6.4 -0.6 43.1 42.5 8.2 8.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.0 5.8 -0.4 47.2 45.3 7.1 8.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.3 5.9 -0.5 44.7 43.3 7.7 8.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.6 5.5 -0.4 46.1 44.3 7.9 8.7 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.3 5.8 -0.5 46.4 44.6 8.1 8.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.4 7.1 -0.3 45.8 47.8 7.5 8.6 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 5.3 6.2 5.2 -1.0 29.1 35.3 6.2 7.0 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.6 8.9 5.5 -0.6 44.1 43.3 8.6 9.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 6.8 -0.6 38.4 41.4 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.2 5.8 -0.2 48.5 48.4 5.5 6.4 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.0 7.2 -0.6 38.2 41.7 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.9 4.6 0.1 52.2 51.6 4.1 5.8 6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.8 6.9 -0.7 41.1 41.0 7.6 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.4 6.9 -0.6 37.7 41.7 6.2 7.4 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.3 7.5 -0.5 38.7 43.1 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.5 8.9 6.9 -0.4 46.3 46.4 8.2 9.0 10.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.0 5.7 -0.9 39.0 39.2 6.8 7.4 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.6 7.8 5.0 -0.5 44.3 43.4 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 7.8 6.6 -0.7 41.5 41.2 7.4 8.3 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 6.5 4.6 -1.0 32.0 36.1 6.6 7.2 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.5 5.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 3.9 5.5 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.0 7.1 -0.6 38.7 41.1 6.6 7.5 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------