***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 7.0 6.0 0.6 55.2 54.0 3.3 5.6 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 5.9 0.7 55.7 55.3 2.4 5.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.1 6.3 0.6 53.3 54.2 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.4 2.1 3.3 0.5 55.6 54.6 -0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.9 4.4 0.6 54.3 55.7 4.4 5.8 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.2 4.5 0.9 56.6 56.9 3.7 6.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 5.9 0.8 54.4 56.1 2.8 5.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.3 1.6 4.3 0.8 57.2 57.3 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.5 5.2 0.7 54.2 55.4 5.1 6.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.1 4.8 0.8 56.4 56.3 4.0 6.2 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.4 4.6 0.8 55.2 57.1 4.3 5.9 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.1 4.5 0.9 56.2 57.6 4.6 6.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.9 4.3 0.9 57.9 57.4 4.0 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.1 5.9 0.8 52.5 55.3 3.6 6.6 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 4.0 0.3 55.4 53.8 3.8 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.4 4.4 0.9 56.4 57.3 4.6 6.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.1 5.9 0.8 55.1 56.0 2.3 4.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.4 4.8 0.8 54.3 56.2 3.1 4.2 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.0 6.1 0.7 53.8 54.9 3.0 5.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.8 3.5 0.9 55.9 57.3 2.5 4.4 5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.7 5.7 0.6 52.8 54.1 4.0 6.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.6 5.8 0.7 51.7 54.9 2.7 5.5 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.0 6.4 0.8 52.2 54.8 3.0 5.9 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.1 5.6 0.8 52.8 55.6 3.9 6.7 9.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.9 4.6 0.6 54.7 54.3 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.7 4.1 0.9 57.8 58.0 4.1 5.8 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.8 5.6 0.7 56.4 54.8 3.5 6.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.4 3.7 0.5 56.6 54.5 4.4 6.2 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.2 4.4 0.8 54.8 56.6 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.8 5.9 0.7 53.9 54.9 2.6 5.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------