***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.2 8.4 0.4 50.8 53.6 6.1 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.9 9.4 8.7 0.7 58.7 55.9 6.0 8.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 10.2 10.1 8.9 0.5 53.2 54.6 7.6 9.5 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.6 4.8 -0.7 39.8 43.8 1.4 3.3 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.6 6.9 0.1 48.2 50.6 7.0 9.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.2 8.7 6.2 0.3 50.3 52.0 6.4 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.2 8.6 0.8 58.7 56.6 6.0 8.0 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.1 6.6 0.8 55.4 57.0 0.1 3.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.5 7.8 0.3 49.1 52.5 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.8 7.3 0.7 53.7 56.1 6.9 9.1 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.0 7.4 0.4 51.5 53.5 6.8 9.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.6 6.9 0.6 52.5 54.7 7.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.1 7.5 0.7 51.1 54.8 7.9 10.0 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.4 8.9 1.2 59.5 60.1 7.7 10.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.3 5.4 6.1 -0.8 37.4 41.0 4.6 7.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.2 10.6 7.0 0.4 51.5 53.1 8.2 10.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.2 8.5 0.9 61.3 57.6 5.4 8.1 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.1 7.3 1.2 59.8 59.5 5.6 7.1 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.5 8.9 0.7 58.1 55.9 6.5 8.6 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.4 8.2 6.2 1.6 65.8 63.5 3.8 6.0 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.4 9.9 8.4 0.3 49.7 52.6 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.7 8.6 0.8 60.0 57.7 5.6 8.9 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.4 9.1 0.8 57.5 56.9 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.8 8.5 0.9 57.6 57.8 8.0 10.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.7 7.1 0.1 48.9 50.6 6.8 8.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.2 6.5 0.6 49.0 53.6 6.8 9.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.2 8.1 0.5 53.6 54.3 7.4 9.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.5 5.6 -0.7 39.9 42.7 6.6 7.9 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.1 7.1 1.4 63.2 61.8 4.1 6.3 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.7 8.7 0.7 56.5 55.3 6.3 8.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------