***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 5.9 5.4 7.0 -3.6 18.9 21.2 7.2 10.1 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 5.4 5.3 7.3 -3.5 20.5 22.4 7.0 9.1 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 6.6 6.3 7.7 -3.4 22.5 24.4 7.0 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -0.2 -1.4 3.7 -3.9 14.8 20.5 1.3 4.2 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 6.6 5.9 5.9 -3.4 20.2 23.6 6.8 10.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 6.3 5.8 4.3 -3.7 18.7 22.3 7.8 9.3 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 5.5 5.4 7.0 -3.5 21.1 21.7 6.7 9.4 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 5.3 -2.8 22.6 27.9 0.8 1.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 6.9 6.9 6.9 -3.2 21.5 24.2 7.3 10.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 6.8 6.1 6.1 -3.0 23.4 27.7 6.8 10.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 6.7 6.0 6.6 -3.2 20.9 25.0 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 6.6 6.1 5.6 -3.1 19.8 25.3 7.1 10.0 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 6.9 6.5 6.4 -3.4 19.5 24.3 8.4 9.5 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.5 6.7 7.8 -2.7 28.5 31.2 7.2 10.6 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 5.8 4.7 5.8 -3.4 12.7 18.2 7.9 8.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.4 6.8 5.8 -3.4 19.1 23.8 8.2 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 5.2 4.9 6.8 -3.5 19.9 22.8 6.9 8.7 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 6.4 5.7 5.8 -2.8 25.5 30.2 6.5 8.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 5.8 5.5 7.5 -3.4 21.8 23.5 6.9 9.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.4 4.7 -2.3 25.3 30.8 4.2 6.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 6.6 6.1 7.5 -3.4 21.4 23.8 6.8 10.2 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 5.6 5.1 7.3 -3.2 20.6 24.5 7.0 9.4 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 6.3 6.0 7.8 -3.2 23.3 25.1 7.1 9.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 7.0 7.2 7.4 -3.0 26.1 29.2 7.8 10.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 5.8 5.5 6.0 -3.8 18.5 21.3 6.4 9.1 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 6.5 6.7 4.7 -3.5 18.2 21.3 7.9 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 6.1 5.7 6.6 -3.6 19.5 21.4 7.5 10.0 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 6.1 4.7 4.7 -3.7 14.5 20.2 8.0 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 3.0 2.3 5.5 -2.5 26.3 30.9 3.5 6.6 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 5.7 5.4 7.3 -3.5 21.0 22.3 6.6 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------