***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 1.8 1.3 1.7 -0.3 42.9 45.2 0.1 1.4 2.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 1.2 0.5 1.4 -0.2 41.3 46.1 -0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.4 1.7 -0.3 41.1 45.1 1.7 2.5 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -2.2 -2.9 -0.9 -0.4 39.2 43.1 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.6 0.0 -0.2 45.7 46.6 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 0.2 -0.1 -1.8 0.1 53.2 49.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 1.2 0.6 1.4 -0.2 43.3 46.6 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -4.2 -3.9 -1.2 0.3 53.9 52.3 -5.1 -4.6 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 48.8 49.1 0.1 1.7 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.8 -0.7 0.2 50.4 51.2 -0.3 0.8 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.9 -0.3 0.0 52.6 49.4 -0.7 0.7 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 54.3 50.0 -1.6 -0.2 0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 0.5 0.1 -1.0 0.0 51.2 49.2 -0.5 0.1 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 1.6 1.0 0.0 -0.1 42.7 47.0 0.9 1.4 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 1.0 0.0 0.3 -0.3 36.5 44.5 -0.1 0.6 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.2 -0.8 0.0 51.4 49.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 0.9 0.2 1.3 -0.1 42.4 46.6 -0.1 0.6 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 0.2 50.0 51.0 -1.6 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 1.3 0.5 1.3 -0.2 40.2 45.4 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -3.3 -3.4 -2.2 0.5 54.8 54.2 -4.5 -3.7 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.8 1.3 -0.2 44.5 46.5 0.1 1.1 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.3 1.3 -0.2 40.5 44.9 -0.3 0.5 1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 1.1 0.3 1.3 -0.2 39.2 45.4 0.1 0.8 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 43.8 47.8 0.0 0.9 1.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.7 0.9 0.7 -0.4 41.7 44.5 0.0 1.3 1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.3 -1.1 0.0 52.6 49.6 -0.8 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.4 1.3 -0.3 43.2 45.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 38.8 43.8 -1.3 -0.2 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 0.3 51.9 53.0 -2.4 -1.7 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 1.6 0.9 1.5 -0.2 42.2 46.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------