***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 49.1 50.2 -0.1 0.8 2.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 45.9 49.3 -0.8 0.1 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.0 45.2 49.8 1.2 2.5 3.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -3.0 -1.0 0.3 49.6 51.2 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.3 -0.5 0.2 47.7 50.7 -0.9 0.4 1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.5 -1.9 0.6 49.2 54.1 -1.2 -0.5 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.2 1.1 0.0 46.4 49.4 -0.7 0.6 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.6 -1.8 0.4 49.7 53.0 -5.1 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.1 46.1 50.5 0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.4 -1.3 0.3 48.2 51.8 -0.8 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 0.3 49.2 52.3 -1.1 0.1 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 0.4 -0.5 -1.4 0.4 49.6 52.8 -2.1 -0.4 1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.0 -1.6 0.5 51.4 53.3 -1.7 -0.1 2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.7 0.0 44.9 49.9 0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 50.8 51.6 -0.5 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 1.6 0.9 -1.3 0.5 50.2 52.8 -0.3 0.9 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.1 47.0 48.3 -0.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.2 -2.1 0.2 46.6 51.4 -2.3 -1.0 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.1 1.0 0.0 44.6 49.4 -0.7 0.7 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.5 49.1 53.4 -5.1 -3.9 -0.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 47.1 49.6 -0.3 0.6 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 44.5 47.2 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 44.1 50.2 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 0.1 44.0 50.5 -0.7 0.4 1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 50.8 50.7 -0.2 0.9 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -1.7 -0.1 -1.5 0.5 52.7 53.6 -1.3 -0.2 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.2 50.1 50.6 -0.7 1.0 3.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 47.8 51.2 -1.3 -0.5 0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -1.8 -2.4 0.3 47.6 51.8 -3.7 -1.8 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 45.5 49.6 -0.6 0.9 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------