***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -3.4 18.6 20.9 0.5 2.6 3.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 -0.7 -0.1 0.7 -2.9 22.9 24.1 0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.2 -3.0 17.7 23.0 1.7 3.5 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 -5.0 -5.8 -1.6 -3.2 15.2 17.8 -3.7 -1.8 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -3.0 20.0 21.7 0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.7 16.2 19.0 -0.2 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.6 -3.0 21.1 23.6 0.6 1.5 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -6.9 -7.2 -1.5 -2.2 23.6 25.1 -5.6 -3.6 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 0.1 0.2 0.1 -2.6 21.9 22.9 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -2.3 22.8 24.4 0.5 1.2 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.6 21.4 21.9 0.0 1.7 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -1.1 -2.6 21.9 21.9 -0.9 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 -1.2 -2.8 18.0 20.2 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -2.6 18.7 24.7 1.1 2.0 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 0.3 -0.7 -0.1 -2.9 10.9 15.4 1.1 1.9 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -2.7 19.6 20.7 0.8 2.4 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -0.6 0.1 0.5 -2.8 25.3 25.4 0.6 1.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -2.3 21.9 25.8 -1.0 0.6 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.8 -2.9 20.1 23.6 0.8 1.6 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -5.4 -5.5 -2.2 -1.9 23.5 28.3 -3.8 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 -0.2 0.0 0.9 -2.9 20.3 22.3 0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -0.5 -0.5 0.8 -2.8 21.4 25.1 0.1 1.2 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 -2.7 18.0 23.3 0.5 1.3 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 -2.5 20.5 24.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 16.0 18.0 0.5 2.0 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -2.9 16.9 19.3 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 -1.1 -1.8 0.3 -3.6 16.4 19.1 0.1 2.4 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -3.0 13.1 17.2 -0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 -3.4 -3.8 -1.7 -1.9 24.4 28.1 -3.1 -0.7 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.9 -3.0 20.5 23.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------