***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 53.2 80.6 80.4 150.2 87.6 76.7 33.7 43.6 52.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 54.1 80.5 74.9 162.1 88.4 78.8 30.4 34.3 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 68.9 89.0 81.9 155.3 88.5 78.2 37.3 46.7 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 77.9 89.4 87.1 140.2 79.1 71.2 42.8 61.2 73.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 69.4 75.5 81.0 132.1 74.7 68.2 36.2 49.8 67.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 54.2 61.5 67.5 115.1 66.0 59.9 35.1 47.0 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 55.5 67.9 73.0 160.7 88.7 78.4 29.9 36.0 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 86.8 95.5 83.8 128.5 76.5 67.3 55.4 71.5 86.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 61.7 69.9 82.5 133.6 76.7 69.2 38.1 49.6 57.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 71.0 83.7 84.4 129.3 75.9 67.9 40.2 53.7 69.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 73.5 83.2 76.9 126.5 73.7 66.2 36.3 58.2 78.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 83.7 95.7 75.7 126.4 74.1 66.1 45.4 62.8 90.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 66.1 75.6 76.5 120.6 69.5 63.6 41.0 60.5 73.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 87.6 100.1 97.6 152.4 89.6 76.3 52.8 65.3 82.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 94.3 110.4 87.7 144.4 80.3 71.5 48.5 60.5 81.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 53.9 79.5 73.3 121.5 70.2 63.7 34.6 46.2 72.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 56.9 76.0 71.0 157.1 87.2 75.9 31.4 37.7 45.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 71.5 78.4 89.3 132.6 77.3 69.6 40.2 56.0 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 64.0 96.4 77.3 161.7 89.0 78.8 30.7 36.3 53.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 71.4 104.3 104.5 129.7 76.9 67.5 40.4 63.0 75.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 64.8 77.3 82.3 140.9 82.5 72.3 36.8 49.7 60.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 66.2 90.6 74.5 156.9 87.6 76.3 37.8 41.0 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 62.2 82.6 81.9 159.4 89.1 78.1 33.0 42.5 54.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 80.9 90.9 88.4 144.5 85.2 74.0 44.4 59.5 81.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 53.3 60.6 87.0 141.4 81.1 72.7 30.1 43.9 49.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 71.7 80.0 78.3 127.0 73.1 66.9 42.3 53.9 69.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 58.3 73.4 81.9 145.8 83.9 75.0 32.2 42.4 53.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 72.5 83.8 79.3 133.3 74.0 67.6 39.8 49.3 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 110.2 125.9 95.6 133.6 79.1 70.2 55.8 83.2 101.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 57.8 81.8 76.9 162.2 88.9 79.6 29.7 36.5 43.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------