***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.9 15.2 106.5 61.3 50.7 2.0 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.0 13.1 108.2 63.3 52.0 2.6 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.3 13.9 100.7 57.7 49.6 2.1 5.2 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.6 16.2 99.4 57.6 49.9 3.9 8.6 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.6 16.3 100.0 56.0 49.9 4.4 6.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.9 7.9 15.4 95.6 56.6 47.9 1.2 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.2 12.8 105.2 62.8 51.2 2.8 6.0 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.0 15.9 90.8 52.5 46.0 5.2 9.9 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.3 16.6 98.7 56.0 49.8 1.7 5.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.9 16.3 93.4 53.8 47.2 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.1 15.0 94.1 55.3 48.0 2.0 5.8 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.7 14.6 91.9 53.6 46.8 2.6 6.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.8 16.4 97.6 56.0 48.6 4.1 6.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.9 16.6 100.2 56.3 48.9 5.1 8.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.3 14.8 91.2 57.1 47.8 1.3 3.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.9 15.4 96.3 55.9 48.5 2.3 4.0 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.3 12.9 104.6 62.5 52.4 2.7 6.8 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.9 16.6 93.0 51.8 46.0 2.6 6.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.6 13.1 106.3 61.2 51.3 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.8 20.9 94.9 53.3 46.5 3.9 6.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.2 16.1 102.7 58.7 50.7 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.1 13.2 105.1 60.9 52.3 2.4 8.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.6 13.3 100.9 58.1 49.8 2.5 7.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 8.5 15.1 94.8 53.9 47.5 5.1 8.3 12.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.2 18.1 109.6 61.4 52.5 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.8 15.9 98.3 56.5 48.7 3.6 6.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.6 16.5 109.6 62.5 52.1 3.7 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.8 14.9 94.7 56.8 49.1 0.4 4.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.6 10.5 17.8 94.6 52.2 46.0 4.3 10.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.3 13.1 106.2 61.4 50.6 1.9 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------