***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.4 10.4 15.5 106.8 58.9 52.3 3.5 6.2 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.3 13.1 106.5 61.8 52.4 1.8 3.9 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.5 15.3 107.9 59.9 52.0 3.6 6.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.9 14.4 16.7 98.6 58.5 49.7 5.4 9.6 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.3 13.7 16.2 97.3 57.2 49.0 2.0 9.8 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.0 14.6 90.1 54.2 45.8 3.3 6.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.8 12.9 108.1 61.3 53.0 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 15.5 16.7 95.5 56.4 48.5 6.5 8.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 5.8 16.7 97.5 55.1 49.0 1.6 4.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.3 17.0 95.8 54.9 48.7 3.7 7.7 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.3 15.2 93.1 55.0 47.6 3.2 9.0 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 10.3 14.8 91.2 55.8 47.1 6.7 9.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.0 14.9 88.9 53.6 45.8 4.6 9.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.8 17.8 103.8 55.4 50.9 4.0 10.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.8 15.4 91.7 60.4 46.8 3.9 12.5 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.3 14.7 91.6 54.7 46.9 3.8 7.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.8 13.0 110.4 62.6 53.5 1.9 6.0 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.3 17.6 95.6 52.6 48.3 6.3 10.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.0 13.6 106.7 61.6 52.0 1.5 6.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 13.6 22.6 105.0 59.8 52.2 3.8 7.5 18.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.0 16.6 104.1 58.6 51.3 2.7 7.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.2 13.2 105.6 60.8 51.7 1.3 7.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.8 14.9 109.3 60.1 52.7 1.5 5.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.0 16.7 100.2 54.5 49.5 4.8 9.0 11.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.7 17.9 106.7 60.0 53.2 3.0 9.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.3 15.2 88.4 53.6 46.5 3.7 8.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.8 16.5 106.9 59.0 53.2 3.3 5.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.5 15.5 95.3 58.8 47.9 4.8 10.4 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 13.5 19.1 98.0 54.0 49.3 6.4 13.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.3 13.7 107.5 61.1 52.8 2.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------