***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.6 9.1 14.9 108.9 62.0 52.6 2.3 5.3 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.3 13.1 109.5 62.8 53.9 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.2 14.2 103.2 61.5 50.9 2.1 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.0 19.2 17.8 117.1 65.4 54.1 3.7 11.0 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.5 15.6 103.8 61.2 51.2 2.1 6.3 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 18.5 14.9 107.7 65.0 54.4 3.5 8.3 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.2 13.1 112.3 64.2 53.8 1.0 6.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.4 15.9 102.4 62.4 51.1 5.7 19.3 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.5 15.3 102.5 61.0 51.0 1.8 6.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 13.0 15.3 98.4 59.3 50.1 2.1 4.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.2 15.1 100.4 59.9 50.3 2.1 8.0 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 8.5 15.2 104.8 62.8 52.0 1.9 4.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.5 13.0 15.9 107.2 63.8 53.9 2.6 5.4 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.9 15.4 93.0 55.5 48.6 5.0 9.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.3 15.2 107.7 65.4 51.2 2.0 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 9.3 14.6 101.1 60.3 51.6 0.9 7.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.1 13.7 118.9 66.4 55.3 2.0 6.5 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.6 15.9 97.6 58.8 50.3 2.6 8.0 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.6 13.2 105.5 60.6 53.2 2.2 6.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.2 21.3 105.3 61.9 52.9 3.0 8.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.8 11.0 15.3 105.4 61.6 51.2 2.8 7.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 13.5 110.3 61.5 53.0 3.5 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.6 13.8 101.8 58.4 52.3 2.0 7.5 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 16.4 15.4 99.0 58.6 50.8 2.5 7.2 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.1 17.6 113.5 61.3 53.8 2.1 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.3 15.2 17.4 116.4 65.4 57.9 4.1 7.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.0 15.7 109.4 61.0 53.1 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.0 15.2 107.4 64.0 51.7 1.8 6.6 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.9 25.9 17.7 98.7 57.8 50.1 6.2 15.7 28.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.3 13.2 106.4 62.3 52.7 1.8 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------