***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 17.7 32.5 34.8 313.5 93.7 87.5 6.0 9.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 20.0 51.8 35.5 364.9 96.0 89.2 2.8 8.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 23.6 66.5 38.6 349.7 95.6 89.5 7.3 8.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 26.7 41.9 36.4 265.8 90.9 84.7 3.7 15.0 21.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 26.1 46.3 32.9 247.2 89.5 84.8 5.0 12.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 31.5 40.8 22.7 180.2 81.2 75.6 5.7 11.8 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 16.8 42.0 34.2 354.8 96.0 89.0 4.0 6.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 44.3 64.0 35.3 240.8 88.9 85.3 5.6 18.0 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 28.6 45.9 34.0 262.3 91.1 86.0 4.7 11.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 30.3 47.4 35.8 248.4 89.5 85.1 6.2 10.4 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 26.8 40.4 31.6 233.9 87.6 83.5 5.9 14.6 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 32.8 50.7 31.0 235.4 88.4 84.4 2.8 17.4 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 30.6 40.2 29.2 195.5 83.7 78.7 7.4 18.5 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 32.6 57.1 47.9 344.6 96.3 90.1 5.9 15.6 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 26.9 60.6 42.2 314.8 92.3 86.3 3.6 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 25.2 40.1 28.5 207.4 84.9 79.9 6.1 13.0 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 17.8 39.5 31.5 327.4 94.9 85.9 2.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 27.7 51.6 39.2 266.5 92.3 86.2 5.4 14.5 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 20.4 49.9 37.3 368.6 95.8 89.8 4.0 8.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 32.9 47.8 39.7 229.3 89.4 84.4 7.6 21.0 28.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 25.9 49.2 34.3 278.9 93.0 86.8 4.1 10.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 22.2 42.1 34.6 341.9 96.1 86.6 3.6 9.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 23.1 39.1 39.9 363.5 95.6 90.3 3.6 9.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 24.9 68.3 41.2 314.4 95.2 88.1 3.7 8.6 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 20.4 28.2 33.4 262.1 90.9 84.9 3.3 11.6 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 32.2 43.9 29.8 223.6 87.1 82.4 8.4 14.8 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 19.7 42.6 33.2 290.0 92.6 86.1 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 28.2 47.0 33.7 253.0 88.5 83.0 3.7 8.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 37.1 62.1 41.1 265.9 92.3 86.5 9.6 22.0 30.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 19.3 46.0 36.8 373.7 96.1 89.9 3.8 7.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------