***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.5 7.4 -0.4 39.9 44.6 7.4 8.1 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.2 7.3 -0.5 38.2 42.1 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.0 7.5 -0.7 36.0 41.3 7.7 8.8 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.2 4.8 -0.3 44.5 46.0 2.1 3.7 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.4 5.8 -0.6 39.6 43.1 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.0 7.9 5.5 -0.2 43.4 47.8 7.3 8.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.5 7.1 7.4 -0.4 39.9 43.3 6.7 7.3 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.3 5.0 -0.7 36.2 41.9 1.0 1.8 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.4 8.5 6.5 -0.7 37.3 42.4 8.3 9.2 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.6 7.6 5.6 -0.8 34.7 40.5 7.5 8.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.6 8.2 6.0 -0.6 37.8 43.0 8.0 8.6 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.4 5.6 -0.5 37.2 44.2 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.6 5.8 -0.5 36.4 43.7 8.5 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.4 6.3 -1.4 29.5 35.4 7.8 8.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.9 6.6 6.2 0.0 44.0 49.2 6.3 7.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.2 9.3 5.8 -0.4 39.6 45.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.5 7.1 -0.6 38.0 41.4 6.3 7.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.7 5.2 -1.1 33.4 38.1 5.7 6.8 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.2 7.4 -0.6 36.4 41.3 6.9 8.1 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.7 3.7 -1.0 33.9 38.5 4.6 5.7 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.1 7.1 -0.6 37.6 42.1 7.7 8.7 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.4 7.0 -0.8 33.9 39.1 6.4 7.6 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 6.1 6.9 7.5 -0.8 34.4 40.3 6.8 8.1 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.7 6.4 -1.1 32.4 37.3 8.8 9.2 10.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.7 7.4 6.2 -0.4 40.8 44.8 6.9 7.8 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.2 5.4 -0.2 41.8 46.7 7.9 8.5 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.6 8.1 7.1 -0.3 41.9 45.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.2 5.5 -0.2 43.9 47.7 6.5 7.6 9.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.4 4.6 -1.2 31.8 36.9 4.4 5.9 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.8 7.1 7.4 -0.5 38.7 42.6 7.0 7.7 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------