***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.9 6.0 0.8 56.3 56.2 3.7 5.7 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.3 6.0 0.7 55.1 55.0 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.5 6.5 1.0 55.4 57.2 3.9 6.3 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.2 3.6 1.0 60.7 58.4 -0.3 2.7 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.1 4.6 1.0 58.2 58.2 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.0 4.1 1.0 59.5 57.0 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 5.9 0.7 56.9 55.1 3.3 4.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.1 4.2 1.0 58.4 57.7 -1.0 1.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.9 5.3 1.0 57.6 57.9 5.0 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.5 4.7 1.0 58.2 57.4 4.1 5.8 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.2 4.7 1.1 60.3 58.7 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.5 4.5 1.1 58.4 58.6 4.2 7.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.5 4.1 0.9 56.6 56.6 4.3 6.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.7 5.7 0.9 55.0 55.2 3.6 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.7 4.5 1.0 60.5 58.9 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.5 4.4 1.0 59.5 58.1 4.7 7.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.6 5.9 0.6 55.8 54.1 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.8 4.7 0.9 57.5 55.9 3.3 4.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.4 6.2 0.8 55.0 55.4 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.2 2.9 0.7 54.1 54.4 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.3 5.9 1.0 56.7 57.6 4.3 6.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.6 5.9 0.6 54.6 54.1 3.5 5.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.1 6.5 0.9 55.0 56.0 3.8 5.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.2 5.6 0.9 55.4 56.2 3.9 7.1 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 4.5 0.8 55.6 56.0 3.9 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.6 4.0 0.9 56.2 56.8 5.0 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.4 5.5 0.7 55.7 55.4 4.2 5.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.3 4.1 1.1 61.2 58.9 4.9 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.8 4.1 0.8 56.0 55.0 1.6 3.9 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.5 6.0 0.8 55.6 55.8 3.5 5.0 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------