***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.9 7.4 0.8 59.1 55.5 6.2 7.2 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.8 7.4 0.8 60.9 55.8 5.6 7.0 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.2 9.8 7.8 0.8 59.8 55.4 6.9 9.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.5 2.8 5.0 0.9 61.1 56.8 0.7 2.4 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.5 9.0 6.0 0.9 59.7 56.6 6.1 8.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.9 5.8 1.0 61.3 58.3 6.1 7.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.9 7.4 0.8 60.9 55.6 5.1 6.8 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.2 2.3 5.5 0.8 57.6 56.7 0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.9 10.3 6.7 0.9 58.1 56.6 6.7 9.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.9 6.1 0.8 57.0 56.1 6.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.5 6.0 0.9 59.9 56.8 6.3 8.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.5 5.9 1.0 59.1 57.7 6.5 8.6 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.6 5.7 0.9 57.0 57.1 6.2 8.3 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.5 9.2 7.0 0.8 56.2 55.2 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.3 5.7 0.8 58.0 56.2 6.3 7.1 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.2 5.9 1.0 60.5 57.5 6.6 9.1 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.2 7.3 0.9 64.3 56.1 4.5 6.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.6 6.0 0.7 55.0 55.0 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.8 7.6 0.9 60.6 56.0 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.3 4.2 0.5 53.3 54.3 2.5 4.6 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.1 9.6 7.2 0.8 59.5 56.1 6.7 8.7 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.6 8.5 7.3 0.9 63.1 56.2 5.5 6.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.6 7.9 0.9 59.7 56.3 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.9 10.4 6.9 0.8 56.9 55.0 7.4 9.5 10.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.0 8.2 6.0 0.8 59.1 56.0 5.8 7.5 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.9 5.5 0.8 57.1 57.4 6.6 7.8 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 10.4 7.0 0.8 59.0 55.9 6.5 8.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.6 5.5 1.0 61.2 57.4 6.4 7.3 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.1 5.4 0.6 53.2 54.4 2.8 5.7 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.0 8.5 7.4 0.8 59.0 55.3 5.9 7.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------