***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.8 7.7 8.6 -0.3 45.0 46.7 6.4 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 5.1 7.7 8.5 -0.4 44.0 46.1 6.3 8.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.0 9.4 9.0 -0.4 44.3 46.7 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.2 5.4 -0.7 37.9 44.5 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.2 9.4 7.0 -0.6 40.8 45.4 6.6 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.8 7.0 6.4 -0.3 41.9 48.0 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 5.1 8.0 8.5 -0.3 45.3 46.6 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.0 6.2 -0.6 40.9 45.2 0.7 2.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.4 10.6 7.8 -0.6 41.3 45.5 8.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.3 6.9 -0.7 41.3 44.8 6.5 10.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.9 9.6 7.4 -0.5 41.1 46.3 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.4 9.0 6.8 -0.5 40.7 46.6 7.1 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.4 8.8 7.2 -0.4 40.0 46.7 8.0 10.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.5 8.8 7.8 -1.0 37.2 42.1 8.5 10.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.4 6.7 -0.8 36.8 43.6 4.7 7.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.9 7.1 -0.4 40.8 47.4 8.0 10.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.7 6.7 8.2 -0.4 43.0 45.6 6.1 8.2 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.2 6.6 -0.8 40.7 43.9 5.2 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.1 8.3 8.7 -0.4 43.5 46.1 6.6 8.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.1 4.6 5.1 -0.7 40.0 43.9 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.3 10.1 8.5 -0.5 43.5 46.1 7.0 10.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.3 7.3 8.2 -0.6 41.5 44.2 7.0 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.3 8.0 8.8 -0.4 43.3 45.9 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.1 9.1 8.0 -0.7 40.9 44.1 7.9 10.8 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.6 8.6 7.3 -0.5 42.7 45.7 6.2 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.7 7.9 6.4 -0.3 40.4 46.7 7.2 9.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.8 9.1 8.2 -0.3 44.4 47.0 7.6 9.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.8 6.5 6.2 -0.7 38.2 45.0 6.1 7.9 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.4 5.9 -0.9 39.4 42.7 4.2 5.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.4 7.9 8.6 -0.4 44.4 46.4 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------