***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 7.6 6.6 7.8 -2.8 21.7 26.6 8.6 10.3 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 5.7 5.1 7.4 -3.4 18.0 22.1 6.8 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 7.1 6.2 7.0 -4.1 15.5 19.4 7.8 10.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 1.4 0.7 5.0 -2.4 21.9 28.4 2.8 5.3 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 6.8 5.8 5.7 -3.6 16.6 22.7 8.6 10.3 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.0 5.7 -2.4 27.4 31.4 9.1 10.0 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 6.4 5.7 7.6 -2.9 22.1 25.3 6.3 9.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -0.1 -0.7 4.2 -4.1 17.3 21.4 1.9 2.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 7.6 6.7 6.2 -4.0 15.3 20.2 8.9 10.8 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 7.0 6.0 4.6 -4.6 15.3 19.1 8.6 10.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 7.2 6.1 6.0 -3.9 16.8 21.5 9.2 11.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 7.0 6.1 5.3 -3.5 17.4 23.2 8.5 10.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 7.7 7.3 6.3 -3.5 20.1 25.5 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 6.1 5.2 4.7 -6.1 9.4 12.2 8.2 10.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.0 -1.1 32.8 37.4 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 7.7 7.5 6.0 -3.3 20.7 25.4 9.4 11.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 5.4 5.0 7.0 -3.3 17.2 21.6 6.7 9.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 6.6 5.7 3.5 -5.3 14.0 16.7 7.7 9.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 6.0 5.2 7.1 -3.8 16.4 19.8 7.3 10.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.7 3.1 2.7 -4.6 17.3 20.1 5.5 7.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 7.1 6.2 6.9 -3.9 15.7 20.2 8.2 10.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 5.3 4.6 6.7 -3.9 14.9 17.9 7.3 9.7 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 6.3 5.8 6.6 -4.4 14.3 17.0 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 7.1 5.8 5.0 -5.5 12.2 14.6 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 7.0 6.2 7.0 -2.7 24.2 28.2 7.3 9.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.2 5.9 -2.3 24.3 31.9 9.1 9.8 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 7.7 7.1 7.7 -2.5 25.9 29.6 8.3 10.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.7 6.2 -2.1 25.9 30.6 8.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 3.4 2.5 3.0 -5.3 15.0 17.2 4.6 6.4 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 6.5 5.8 7.5 -3.3 19.9 23.3 6.8 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------