***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.0 1.7 1.9 0.6 57.3 55.4 0.2 1.1 3.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.2 1.4 0.4 53.6 53.8 -0.5 0.9 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.4 1.6 0.5 54.6 54.6 1.1 2.9 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 48.9 53.8 -3.9 -2.7 -1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -0.9 0.9 -0.7 0.4 51.4 54.8 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.6 0.0 -2.2 0.7 51.9 57.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.5 1.4 1.6 0.5 56.4 54.5 -0.4 0.8 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -2.0 0.7 53.2 56.0 -5.6 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 0.0 1.7 -0.2 0.5 53.7 55.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.0 -1.5 0.5 52.9 55.3 -0.4 0.8 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -1.1 0.7 -1.1 0.5 52.2 55.4 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.1 0.3 -1.5 0.7 53.0 56.7 -1.9 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.6 -1.6 0.7 52.2 56.6 -1.3 0.5 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.2 -0.7 0.3 49.4 53.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.3 49.5 53.4 -0.2 0.8 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.9 -1.5 0.6 51.1 55.7 0.1 0.8 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -1.0 0.6 1.5 0.5 55.7 54.1 -0.6 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -0.7 -2.3 0.5 52.4 54.4 -1.7 -0.9 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 53.6 53.6 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -3.0 -3.1 0.7 53.6 55.5 -4.2 -3.4 -1.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 56.6 55.4 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.8 1.3 0.5 55.5 54.1 -0.8 0.5 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -0.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 52.9 53.5 0.1 1.1 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -0.2 0.6 -1.0 0.3 50.9 53.2 -0.5 0.6 1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.6 55.0 55.5 0.1 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.4 0.4 -1.6 0.8 54.8 57.6 -1.4 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -0.4 1.7 1.5 0.6 57.4 55.9 -0.2 0.9 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -0.2 -1.1 0.3 49.8 54.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -1.7 -2.6 0.5 52.4 54.6 -3.7 -1.9 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -0.1 1.3 1.6 0.4 54.4 54.2 0.1 1.1 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------