***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.0 0.3 2.8 -0.2 42.7 48.3 -0.7 1.3 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 2.2 0.3 2.3 -0.5 41.0 45.3 -0.6 1.4 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.0 1.7 2.4 -0.6 38.8 44.3 1.1 2.6 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -0.4 -0.8 35.5 43.0 -5.4 -2.2 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 0.4 -0.8 35.8 43.3 -1.1 0.4 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.2 -1.8 -0.6 35.7 43.7 -1.4 -0.2 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.4 0.7 2.4 -0.4 41.5 46.5 -0.6 1.5 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -6.4 -5.7 -1.7 -0.9 33.7 42.0 -5.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 34.7 42.0 -0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.1 33.3 40.9 -1.9 0.2 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.9 34.6 42.0 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.8 34.2 42.9 -2.0 -0.6 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 33.6 41.4 -1.4 -0.1 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -0.6 0.1 -0.5 -1.7 29.8 35.1 0.2 0.7 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -0.7 0.4 1.2 -0.5 38.3 44.8 0.1 1.1 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 33.7 42.2 -0.6 1.1 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.4 2.1 -0.6 41.5 45.0 -0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -2.9 -2.2 -2.0 -1.3 31.7 39.4 -2.2 -0.7 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 0.0 0.4 2.1 -0.6 39.6 43.8 -0.5 1.6 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -5.7 -5.4 -2.7 -0.9 33.7 43.0 -5.7 -2.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 1.8 -0.6 38.8 44.1 -0.8 0.9 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -0.6 0.4 2.0 -0.7 38.9 43.0 -0.5 1.2 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 1.7 -0.9 36.7 41.2 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -1.8 -0.4 -1.4 31.7 37.9 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.0 -0.5 1.8 -0.4 40.8 46.7 -0.8 1.5 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 35.3 44.5 -1.3 1.0 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.4 2.5 -0.2 43.0 48.3 -0.7 0.9 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -0.2 -0.8 35.0 42.4 -1.7 0.0 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -2.6 -1.3 30.8 39.3 -4.2 -1.7 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.1 0.8 2.5 -0.4 41.9 46.3 -0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------