***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.6 4.6 0.5 57.6 54.5 1.4 2.7 3.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.7 3.8 0.0 47.1 49.7 0.6 1.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.5 3.9 -0.3 44.0 47.0 1.8 3.9 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.6 2.4 0.8 57.4 57.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.0 2.8 0.1 48.3 50.7 0.6 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 2.5 2.3 1.5 1.3 63.7 63.5 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.0 4.0 0.2 51.5 51.9 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.0 0.6 0.1 48.2 50.5 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.3 2.9 0.3 52.7 52.9 1.1 2.0 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.0 47.3 49.1 0.7 1.4 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 2.1 1.8 2.5 0.4 52.9 53.9 0.6 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.6 1.7 0.4 52.3 53.3 -0.8 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.6 57.0 55.9 0.4 1.5 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.2 1.3 -1.0 37.7 38.5 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 2.7 3.1 4.9 2.0 78.6 72.1 1.2 1.7 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.8 2.1 0.5 55.9 55.4 1.1 2.6 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.7 3.2 -0.3 45.4 46.9 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 39.7 42.8 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.4 3.6 -0.2 45.9 48.3 0.9 1.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -2.8 -1.2 -0.6 38.2 43.6 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 2.3 1.9 3.8 0.1 50.4 50.7 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.0 0.8 3.2 -0.6 42.0 43.9 0.1 1.4 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.2 3.3 -0.4 44.7 45.6 0.7 1.6 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.1 1.7 -0.6 39.9 42.8 0.3 1.4 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.9 4.2 0.6 57.8 55.5 0.8 2.3 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 2.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 59.0 58.4 0.5 1.5 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 2.8 3.9 4.5 0.7 59.9 56.6 0.4 2.2 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 0.9 2.1 3.0 1.2 64.0 61.9 -0.3 0.5 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 38.5 42.7 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.0 4.1 0.1 49.5 51.1 0.9 2.0 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------