***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 48.2 43.2 47.7 89.8 47.5 43.2 34.3 44.0 52.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 25.3 34.2 41.8 86.4 45.9 42.0 30.4 35.6 51.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 32.7 46.8 48.3 92.5 47.9 44.7 40.5 49.6 64.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 43.4 61.3 58.0 98.1 53.4 46.8 42.5 60.7 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 35.8 44.9 53.4 93.3 46.5 45.2 36.2 49.9 69.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 30.3 50.0 51.6 97.6 55.0 46.2 35.1 47.0 62.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.7 35.1 40.6 85.1 43.0 41.2 29.6 35.6 44.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 48.9 66.5 58.0 94.5 47.3 46.2 53.8 69.1 82.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 33.8 45.9 53.6 93.5 47.2 45.3 38.1 51.3 58.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 61.8 53.9 57.2 94.8 47.5 46.2 42.6 54.7 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 40.0 57.4 53.8 95.0 48.2 46.0 38.1 58.8 79.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 41.4 57.2 53.0 93.5 47.2 45.1 46.3 62.8 95.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 36.3 58.7 53.9 92.9 50.2 43.7 41.3 58.6 75.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 45.6 56.6 56.0 88.3 44.2 42.7 49.7 65.0 87.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 41.1 74.7 59.5 102.2 59.7 48.0 48.4 60.4 80.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 31.5 47.4 52.7 95.6 51.4 45.4 34.6 46.5 78.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 25.8 32.9 38.7 81.3 38.9 38.6 30.1 37.1 45.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 41.8 52.0 58.0 92.7 45.2 45.2 39.9 55.7 72.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 29.3 36.8 43.7 88.4 47.7 43.0 29.3 37.8 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 70.2 57.0 69.7 91.0 45.3 44.7 40.1 63.0 79.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 32.8 45.6 50.9 91.5 46.2 44.0 36.8 49.6 62.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.8 39.7 41.5 82.4 40.3 39.3 37.7 43.4 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 29.4 43.3 46.9 90.3 47.8 43.7 31.1 44.2 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 39.2 51.6 54.3 92.0 45.1 44.4 44.2 55.6 83.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 28.7 43.6 52.7 88.6 43.6 42.5 31.2 44.8 48.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 33.4 51.1 53.3 92.6 46.9 44.2 42.4 51.5 69.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 29.5 41.6 48.3 86.9 43.8 41.7 34.0 42.8 57.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 33.7 54.7 56.4 101.1 57.1 47.7 39.8 51.1 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 94.3 76.2 60.3 90.6 43.8 44.1 49.4 85.3 109.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.1 36.2 44.1 89.5 47.8 43.7 29.4 37.5 46.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------