***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.9 14.5 17.9 135.0 70.6 58.8 4.3 7.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.7 16.4 139.2 71.6 59.1 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.7 17.6 17.4 133.8 72.4 58.1 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.3 20.2 140.9 73.9 61.4 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.3 16.6 18.8 133.9 74.6 60.6 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.6 17.9 130.8 67.6 59.1 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.7 16.0 138.7 72.0 59.4 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.5 21.7 20.3 136.5 74.4 61.2 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.7 18.8 129.1 73.2 59.4 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 17.4 19.8 131.7 73.4 60.1 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.3 14.1 18.6 135.9 74.8 61.0 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.4 16.8 18.8 137.9 73.6 61.3 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 16.7 19.3 136.2 72.0 60.7 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 16.7 19.2 120.6 67.5 56.0 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.6 17.7 20.7 143.1 74.5 61.2 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.3 18.8 139.1 73.5 61.3 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.1 15.6 15.1 134.1 69.2 58.3 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 15.0 19.9 127.2 71.6 58.6 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 16.5 16.8 138.2 72.0 58.9 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 15.2 25.0 130.6 74.3 59.4 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.2 18.1 130.7 71.9 58.7 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 17.3 16.2 134.0 69.2 58.3 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.0 16.0 17.4 134.3 71.5 58.3 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.1 18.4 125.0 70.0 56.9 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 13.0 14.0 19.7 134.4 70.8 59.0 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.6 19.6 136.1 72.3 59.8 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.3 14.6 18.4 133.0 69.4 58.3 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.0 10.3 19.5 141.7 73.8 61.6 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 20.7 20.9 125.8 71.2 58.5 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.7 17.0 140.1 73.7 59.3 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------