***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.1 9.8 16.8 119.6 67.5 57.3 3.5 5.4 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.4 9.4 15.0 118.7 67.9 57.7 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.3 15.0 17.1 124.2 69.2 59.5 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.6 17.4 112.5 64.9 56.8 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.0 13.1 17.0 112.3 63.1 57.3 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.1 15.1 104.8 60.0 53.8 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.5 10.1 14.7 117.6 66.6 57.0 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.4 17.7 110.3 63.0 57.1 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.7 11.5 17.6 113.3 62.8 57.8 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.1 17.9 111.6 62.8 57.5 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.7 16.2 110.0 62.2 56.9 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.9 15.9 108.1 60.9 56.2 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.6 15.4 102.2 56.4 53.6 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.4 18.4 20.5 123.9 69.1 59.9 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.7 21.6 16.7 106.2 64.3 55.6 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.3 15.2 105.8 58.8 55.2 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 12.0 14.3 113.8 65.6 55.8 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.0 16.6 19.4 116.8 64.4 58.9 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.7 15.6 121.1 68.7 58.7 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 22.6 23.1 111.8 62.8 57.4 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.2 17.2 116.8 64.6 58.3 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.3 15.5 117.5 66.7 57.1 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.7 11.8 16.7 123.9 69.1 59.3 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.9 19.2 122.3 67.3 59.9 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.2 12.8 17.6 112.8 63.4 56.1 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.9 16.1 104.8 59.7 53.8 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.2 16.7 114.1 64.7 55.8 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.3 15.9 107.5 63.0 56.0 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 21.1 20.5 116.4 64.4 58.8 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.9 9.3 15.7 121.4 69.5 58.4 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------