***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 1.9 5.5 11.6 76.6 48.4 36.9 2.3 6.0 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.3 66.1 47.1 34.3 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.7 12.2 83.1 52.4 38.6 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 14.8 18.0 114.1 64.4 45.5 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 12.3 15.2 95.5 56.8 43.2 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.7 17.6 15.3 107.8 64.0 44.4 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.6 4.6 8.9 63.7 44.0 33.2 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.4 25.1 16.4 97.8 58.7 45.8 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.0 14.8 95.9 58.1 43.7 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.4 16.0 99.0 59.5 45.4 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.3 16.2 101.0 58.0 44.5 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.5 15.6 97.4 57.6 44.1 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.7 13.9 15.5 97.3 57.5 42.3 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.1 13.9 79.7 51.7 40.2 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.4 22.5 19.7 131.2 72.1 46.3 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.9 15.8 103.1 59.1 43.4 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.7 5.0 8.4 59.6 44.3 31.8 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 13.0 15.5 93.4 58.2 44.5 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 7.6 10.0 70.7 48.3 35.8 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 11.5 17.8 84.1 52.2 43.1 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.3 13.5 87.9 54.5 40.9 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 3.9 7.3 8.9 61.2 42.9 33.3 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.1 11.3 76.2 48.7 37.6 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.8 14.2 89.1 56.4 42.1 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.4 13.5 79.9 49.1 38.5 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.7 14.7 15.1 94.9 56.9 42.5 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 1.5 4.3 11.7 73.1 45.7 36.2 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 21.4 18.4 124.9 68.8 46.1 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.8 15.5 15.6 86.6 53.7 43.1 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.1 5.7 10.3 72.4 49.0 35.9 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------