***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 2.3 1.3 1.5 13.8 24.0 19.1 3.6 9.0 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 1.4 0.9 1.0 10.7 21.4 16.9 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.6 14.8 24.8 18.6 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 3.6 3.7 2.3 17.4 24.5 19.0 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 3.5 4.9 2.4 19.9 30.0 22.8 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 4.7 4.2 3.3 30.9 38.7 29.6 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.2 1.4 1.0 10.3 20.8 17.3 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 5.4 11.2 3.5 25.7 33.4 26.9 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 3.4 4.8 2.4 20.1 28.9 23.0 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.3 6.8 3.5 26.5 33.1 26.8 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 4.5 8.1 2.9 23.1 32.1 25.2 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 4.7 3.5 2.7 22.0 32.3 25.1 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.6 6.5 3.7 28.6 36.9 29.2 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 5.0 5.9 2.4 17.9 27.0 21.2 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.8 2.5 18.9 30.6 21.4 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.6 5.1 2.8 23.7 33.7 26.5 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 2.4 1.9 0.9 9.2 19.9 15.5 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.7 6.1 3.2 23.3 29.5 25.1 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 1.6 0.6 1.2 12.0 23.4 17.7 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 6.5 6.9 3.7 24.5 30.3 26.3 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 3.6 2.7 2.0 17.2 26.0 21.1 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 1.8 1.3 0.9 8.9 19.1 14.6 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.5 2.5 1.5 13.8 26.2 18.9 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 3.5 2.2 2.6 20.1 27.8 23.1 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.2 2.0 15.9 25.4 19.1 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.8 10.6 2.6 21.6 33.0 25.8 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.9 2.7 1.5 13.8 24.5 18.4 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.4 3.0 2.6 20.9 30.1 22.0 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 7.3 9.7 3.2 22.6 29.7 25.3 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 1.6 0.7 1.1 11.0 21.6 17.5 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------