***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.7 8.4 0.3 55.5 53.0 7.8 8.3 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 0.6 59.7 55.8 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 8.8 0.3 54.1 53.0 8.0 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.3 0.0 47.7 49.7 2.4 3.9 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 6.7 0.0 48.1 49.6 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 5.8 -0.2 47.1 47.5 7.6 8.5 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.1 8.5 0.6 59.7 56.4 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.0 6.2 0.1 48.2 50.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 7.6 0.1 49.0 50.4 8.4 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.8 6.8 0.0 47.6 49.6 7.6 9.0 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.9 6.9 0.0 48.0 49.6 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 6.6 0.2 50.9 51.7 8.4 9.5 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.5 6.7 0.1 50.5 50.5 8.6 9.5 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.2 8.1 0.1 51.4 51.0 8.2 9.2 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.9 6.7 0.2 52.1 53.2 6.5 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 6.6 0.0 49.7 49.9 9.3 10.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.8 8.4 0.6 59.0 55.9 6.4 7.5 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.3 6.7 0.1 48.4 50.5 5.8 7.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.6 8.8 0.5 59.1 55.4 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.0 5.3 0.2 50.4 51.9 5.2 5.9 7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.9 8.1 0.0 48.3 50.0 8.0 9.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.4 8.3 0.4 57.5 54.4 6.7 7.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.8 9.0 0.5 57.8 55.2 7.2 8.4 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.9 8.0 0.1 50.9 50.9 9.0 9.8 10.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.2 6.9 0.0 51.4 50.1 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 6.2 0.3 53.2 53.1 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.1 7.9 0.2 54.4 52.0 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.7 5.9 0.0 47.8 50.2 6.8 7.8 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.0 6.3 0.1 49.5 51.3 4.9 6.0 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.4 8.6 0.5 58.7 55.5 7.1 7.7 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------