***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 5.4 5.4 -0.5 40.3 44.8 4.6 6.4 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.4 5.5 -0.4 40.6 45.2 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.3 5.0 5.8 -0.5 41.3 44.5 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -0.6 2.7 2.8 -0.6 42.9 44.6 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.4 3.8 -0.6 43.1 44.1 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.4 3.5 -0.5 41.3 46.2 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.0 5.5 -0.3 40.5 45.5 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -1.3 0.7 3.4 -0.7 42.5 44.5 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.7 7.3 4.6 -0.7 43.8 44.3 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 6.1 3.9 -0.7 42.8 44.1 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.1 3.8 -0.6 43.5 44.6 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 6.8 3.7 -0.5 43.2 45.2 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.3 3.5 -0.5 43.1 45.7 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.7 4.8 5.1 -0.8 41.3 43.7 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.0 3.7 -0.5 40.9 45.5 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.6 3.6 -0.5 43.3 45.2 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.8 5.5 -0.3 43.0 45.6 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.2 4.0 -0.8 41.4 44.2 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.7 5.6 -0.5 40.5 44.8 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.3 2.5 -0.6 40.4 44.7 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 5.7 5.2 -0.6 41.9 44.3 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.5 5.4 -0.5 41.3 45.0 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.4 5.9 -0.6 40.8 44.5 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.7 6.4 5.0 -0.7 42.5 44.0 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.0 -0.6 41.8 44.5 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.8 3.4 -0.3 38.6 46.7 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.8 5.0 -0.5 40.7 44.9 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.2 3.2 -0.6 42.1 44.9 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 1.9 2.5 3.5 -0.8 41.2 44.3 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.3 5.5 -0.4 40.0 45.1 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------